Structural Change in Argentina, 1935-1960: The Role of Import Substitution and Factor Endowments

28 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2012

See all articles by Dario Debowicz

Dario Debowicz

Global Development Institute, University of Manchester; Department of Economics

Paul Segal

International Development Institute

Date Written: October 13, 2012

Abstract

This paper investigates structural change in Argentina between 1935 and 1960, a period of rapid industrialization and of relative decline of the agricultural sector. This has been the subject of a longrunning debate that has exercised Argentine economists throughout the twentieth century, and remains politically salient today. It has been argued that this this relative decline of agriculture was due to the policies of import-substituting industrialization (ISI). This was also the period, however, that directly followed the closing of the land frontier, resulting in a declining land-labor ratio as the population continued to grow. We use a stylized, dynamic three-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the period to analyze the respective effects of ISI policies and the observed changes in factor endowments on the structure of the economy. We find that the declining land-labor ratio was more important than ISI in explaining relative stagnation in agriculture. ISI gave a substantial boost to manufacturing but primarily at the expense of nontraded services, rather than of agriculture.

Keywords: structural transformation, economic history, Argentina, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model

JEL Classification: D58, O11, N00

Suggested Citation

Debowicz, Dario and Segal, Paul, Structural Change in Argentina, 1935-1960: The Role of Import Substitution and Factor Endowments (October 13, 2012). IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 01212, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2161333 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2161333

Dario Debowicz (Contact Author)

Global Development Institute, University of Manchester ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester
United Kingdom

Department of Economics ( email )

Haldane Building
Singleton Park
Swansea, SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.swansea.ac.uk/staff/som/econ/debowicz-d/

Paul Segal

International Development Institute ( email )

Strand
London, England WC2R 2LS
United Kingdom

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
84
Abstract Views
666
Rank
535,304
PlumX Metrics