Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles?

Economic Review, Third Quarter 2012, pp. 5-39

36 Pages Posted: 26 Oct 2012

See all articles by Travis J. Berge

Travis J. Berge

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: October 25, 2012

Abstract

The past 30 years have been witness to an inexorable change in the degree to which economies are connected internationally. At the same time, the 2007-2008 recession was the first ‘global recession’ in decades. This article explores how international trade and cross-border holdings financial assets impact the synchronization of business cycles internationally. The paper begins by producing chronologies of business cycle turning points for a group of 32 major economies covering 40 years of history. With these chronologies in hand, we document the degree of bilateral business cycle synchronization, relating cross-country differences in synchronization to bilateral trade and financial linkages. The analysis confirms that countries with deep trade linkages tend to experience similar business cycle fluctuations. However, we find no such relationship for financial linkages.

Keywords: International business cycles

JEL Classification: F40, F44

Suggested Citation

Berge, Travis J., Has Globalization Increased the Synchronicity of International Business Cycles? (October 25, 2012). Economic Review, Third Quarter 2012, pp. 5-39, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2166923

Travis J. Berge (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

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