Savings Needed for Health Expenses for People Eligible for Medicare: Some Rare Good News

Abstract

This paper provides estimates for savings needed to cover health insurance to supplement Medicare and out-of-pocket expenses for health care services in retirement. Medicare generally covers only about 60 percent of the cost of health care services (not including long-term care) for Medicare beneficiaries ages 65 and older, while out-of-pocket spending accounts for 13 percent. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) reduces cost sharing in the Part D “donut hole” down to 25 percent by 2020. This year-to-year reduction in coinsurance will continue to reduce savings needed for health care expenses in retirement, all else equal, for individuals with the highest prescription drug use. EBRI analysis finds 1-2 percent reductions in needed savings among individuals with median drug use and 4-5 percent reductions in needed savings among individuals at the 90th percentile in drug use since EBRI’s 2011 analysis. A 65-year-old man would need $70,000 in savings and a woman would need $93,000 in 2012 if each had a goal of having a 50 percent chance of having enough money saved to cover health care expenses (excluding long-term care) in retirement. A 65-year-old couple, both with median drug expenses, would need $163,000 in 2012 to have a 50 percent chance of having enough money to cover health care expenses (excluding long-term care) in retirement, $227,000 to have a 75 percent chance of covering those expenses, and $283,000 to have a 90 percent chance of doing so. These estimates are 1-2 percent lower than the savings targets estimated in 2011. Many individuals will need more money than the amounts cited in this report because this analysis does not factor in the savings needed to cover long-term care expenses, nor does it take into account the fact that many individuals retire prior to becoming eligible for Medicare. However, some workers will need to save less than what is reported if they choose to work during retirement, thereby postponing enrollment in Medicare Parts B and D if they receive health benefits as active workers. Finally, issues surrounding retirement income security are certain to become an even greater challenge in the future as employers continue to scale back retiree health benefits and as policymakers begin to address financial shortfalls in the Medicare program with solutions that are likely to shift more responsibility for health care costs to Medicare beneficiaries.

The PDF for the above title, published in the October 2012 issue of EBRI Notes, also contains the fulltext of another October 2012 EBRI Notes article abstracted on SSRN: “IRA Asset Allocation, 2010.”

Keywords: Aged, Health care costs, Health insurance, Medicare, Medicare supplement insurance, Prescription drug costs, Savings

JEL Classification: H51, I1, I18, J14