Evaluation of Conflict Hazard and Financial Risk in the E7 Economies’ Capital Markets

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to examine the interaction between financial stress and conflict risk having impacts on financial instruments in capital markets within an interdisciplinary frame. The Fuzzy TOPSIS method is applied in order to analyze effects of conflict hazard on capital markets and financial instruments in the E7 economies and to demonstrate the best possible ranks of the E7 economies based on performance evaluation criteria. In order to obtain the dynamics of data as to develop a sufficient reference bases for expert opinions, conflict hazard index and financial stress index have been structured. The empirical results confirm that there is strong relation between financial stress index and conflict hazard index for the E7 economies. The fundamental conclusion demonstrates the effects of the financial and conflict risks for the stock selection in the E7 economies by the criteria derived from the Financial Stress Index and Conflict Risk Index.

Keywords: financial risk, conflict, financial stress, Fuzzy, TOPSIS

JEL Classification: C6, D7, D8, G1