Opportunity, Willingness, and Political Uncertainty: Theoretical Foundations of Politics

Journal of Theoretical Politics, 7(4), 447-476 (1995)

31 Pages Posted: 11 Jul 2013

See all articles by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla

George Mason University - Center for Social Complexity; American Association for the Advancement of Science; American Mathematical Society; Society for Political Methodology

Harvey Starr

University of Leeds - Institute for International Studies

Date Written: July 9, 2013

Abstract

Political behavior – social events and processes concerning the governance and life of a collectivity, whether domestic or international – is caused by two fundamental, necessary conditions: the operational opportunity to act and the willingness to do so. We also assume that both conditions to act and the multiple, substitutable, and uncertain modes (probabilistically) not with certainty (deterministically). We develop foundations for a formal theory with unified principles for understanding political behavior. Given the authors' area of expertise, the theory is illustrated primarily with examples from deterrence, coalitions and war. Although strongly nonlinear, the probabilistic causality of political behavior is shown to be scientifically tractable and to contain grater theoretical interest and empirical complexity than previously understood. We also show how real-world political complexity differs from that of a counterfactual world with antithetical casual structure. Our theory offers, for example, and explanation for the observed 'turbulence' in recent world politics.

Suggested Citation

Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio and Starr, Harvey, Opportunity, Willingness, and Political Uncertainty: Theoretical Foundations of Politics (July 9, 2013). Journal of Theoretical Politics, 7(4), 447-476 (1995), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2291584

Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (Contact Author)

George Mason University - Center for Social Complexity ( email )

430 Alhambra Circle
Coral Gables, FL 33134
United States

HOME PAGE: http://socialcomplexity.gmu.edu

American Association for the Advancement of Science ( email )

Washington, DC 20005
United States

American Mathematical Society ( email )

Society for Political Methodology ( email )

Harvey Starr

University of Leeds - Institute for International Studies ( email )

United States

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