CDS: Liquidity Shortage or Structural Insolvency?

Abstract

A Credit Default Swap is typically explained as the price to insure the investor from a default of a specific issuer. In this paper we will analyze the behaviour of CDS for financial issuers from 2008 to current times.

We will derive a simple theoretical framework where liability management and liquidity will play a central role in determining CDS levels: such framework will be also useful to evaluate the impact of monetary policy, in the extent it modifies liquidity supply, on CDS spreads.

Usually monetary policy is assumed to have immediate consequences on interest rates levels; this work adds a different perspective arguing, by also providing some empirical evidence, that Liquidity, seen as a direct input of monetary policy, is explanatory on the evolution of financial CDS.

Keywords: Financial CDS, Capital Structure, Equityzation of Debt