Publication Bias in the Returns to R&D Literature

29 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2013

See all articles by Jarle Møen

Jarle Møen

Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Department of Business and Management Science

Helge Thorsen

Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Department of Economics

Date Written: November 21, 2013

Abstract

The returns to R&D literature is large and has been surveyed on several occasions. We complement previous surveys by using formal meta analytic techniques to analyse publication bias. We find evidence consistent with a strong positive bias in the part of the literature that controls for unobserved firm fixed effects. The reason may be that fixed effects specifications are particularly susceptible to measurement errors and therefore have a high probability of producing implausibly low return estimates. Implausible estimates are likely to be filtered out before being reported, and our analysis suggest that 26% of a hypothetical complete literature is missing. Future reviews should take into account that the full effect of negative specifications biases may be masked by reporting and publication bias.

Keywords: Returns to R&D, Meta-analysis, Publication bias, Funnel asymmetry, Trim-and-fill method, FAT-PET

JEL Classification: C83, D24, O31

Suggested Citation

Moen, Jarle and Thorsen, Helge, Publication Bias in the Returns to R&D Literature (November 21, 2013). NHH Dept. of Business and Management Science Discussion Paper No. 2013/12, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2357900 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2357900

Jarle Moen (Contact Author)

Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Department of Business and Management Science ( email )

Helleveien 30
Bergen, NO-5045
Norway

Helge Thorsen

Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Department of Economics ( email )

Helleveien 30
N-5035 Bergen
Norway

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