On Bayesian Models and Consistency

U of Michigan Business School Working Paper 00-017

21 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2001

See all articles by Stephen G. Walker

Stephen G. Walker

University of Bath - School of Mathematical Sciences

Paul Damien

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business

Date Written: 2000

Abstract

We discuss the relevance of consistency to the Bayesian. Should consistency be dismissed as irrelevant or thought about seriously when constructing prior distributions? Strong opinions have been held on this matter, but it is probably fair to say it is a largely neglected area. Pioneers, such as de Finetti, Savage, Lindley, have had very little to say on the matter. The aim of this paper is to give specific reasons why Bayesians should be concerned with consistency and exactly what type of consistency they should be concerned with, if the goal is to make rational and good decisions. We also discuss the notion of a true model and define useful connections with consistency.

Keywords: Decision theory, exchangeability, expected utility rule, true model.

Suggested Citation

Walker, Stephen G. and Damien, Paul, On Bayesian Models and Consistency (2000). U of Michigan Business School Working Paper 00-017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=249150 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.249150

Stephen G. Walker (Contact Author)

University of Bath - School of Mathematical Sciences ( email )

Bath, BA2 7AY
United Kingdom

Paul Damien

University of Texas at Austin - McCombs School of Business ( email )

Austin, TX 78712
United States

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
137
Abstract Views
1,588
Rank
379,079
PlumX Metrics