Accounting for the Fertility Transition in the US

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility transition in the US from 1850 to the end of the 20th century. We find a negative relationship between years of schooling and fertility, which suggests that the rise in schooling accounts for at least 60 percent of the US fertility decline. By contrast, the analysis shows no evidence of a robust relationship between GDP per capita and fertility. These empirical facts corroborate theories stressing the importance of human capital investments in generating a transition from high to low fertility.

Keywords: Fertility transition; Schooling; Income; Q-Q trade-off; US states

JEL Classification: J11; J13; O11; I2