Technical Debt and the Reliability of Enterprise Software Systems: A Competing Risks Analysis

Forthcoming in Management Science

48 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2014 Last revised: 16 Feb 2015

See all articles by Narayan Ramasubbu

Narayan Ramasubbu

University of Pittsburgh - Katz Graduate School of Business

Chris F. Kemerer

University of Pittsburgh - Katz Graduate School of Business; Carnegie Mellon University - School of Computer Science

Date Written: January 27, 2015

Abstract

Enterprise software systems are required to be highly reliable as they are central to the business operations of most firms. However, configuring and maintaining these systems can be highly complex, making it challenging to achieve high reliability. Resource constrained software teams facing business pressures can be tempted to take design shortcuts in order to deliver business functionality more quickly. These design shortcuts and other maintenance activities contribute to the accumulation of technical debt, that is, a buildup of software maintenance obligations that need to be addressed in the future. We model and empirically analyze the impact of technical debt on system reliability by utilizing a longitudinal dataset spanning the 10 year lifecycle of a commercial enterprise system deployed at 48 different client firms. We use a competing risks analysis approach to discern the interdependency between client and vendor maintenance activities. This allows us to assess the effect of both problematic client modifications (client errors) and software errors present in the vendor-supplied platform (vendor errors) on system failures. We also examine the relative effects of modular and architectural maintenance activities undertaken by clients in order to analyze the dynamics of technical debt reduction. The results of our analysis first establish that technical debt decreases the reliability of enterprise systems. Second, modular maintenance targeted to reduce technical debt was about 53% more effective than architectural maintenance in reducing the probability of a system failure due to client errors, but had the side-effect of increasing the chance of a system failure due to vendor errors by about 83% more than did architectural maintenance activities. Using our empirical results we illustrate how firms could evaluate their business risk exposure due to technical debt accumulation in their enterprise systems, and assess the estimated net effects, both positive and negative, of a range of software maintenance practices. Finally, we discuss implications for research in measuring and managing technical debt in enterprise systems.

Keywords: technical debt, enterprise systems, software reliability, software complexity, architectural maintenance, modular maintenance, customization, toolkits, competing risks.

Suggested Citation

Ramasubbu, Narayan and Kemerer, Chris F., Technical Debt and the Reliability of Enterprise Software Systems: A Competing Risks Analysis (January 27, 2015). Forthcoming in Management Science, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2523483 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2523483

Narayan Ramasubbu (Contact Author)

University of Pittsburgh - Katz Graduate School of Business ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States

Chris F. Kemerer

University of Pittsburgh - Katz Graduate School of Business ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States
412-648-1572 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.pitt.edu/~ckemerer/kemerer.htm

Carnegie Mellon University - School of Computer Science

5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
United States

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