The Future of Intrastate Conflict in Africa More Violence or Greater Peace?

ISS Paper No. 246

24 Pages Posted: 15 Nov 2015

See all articles by Jakkie Cilliers

Jakkie Cilliers

Institute for Security Studies

Julia Schünemann

Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)

Date Written: May 15, 2013

Abstract

This paper analyses future trends for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050 using the International Futures (IFs) model. After reviewing the main post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent, the paper discusses seven key correlations associated with intrastate conflict in Africa. It then points to a number of reasons for the changing outlook, including the continued salience of various ‘structural’ conditions that drive intrastate violence even during rapid economic growth, recent improvements in human development alongside a strengthened regional and international conflict prevention, conflict resolution and peacebuilding regime. Finally, the paper explores how multipolarity may impact on stability and forecasts trends for intrastate conflict in West, Southern, Horn/East and Central Africa. The authors expect large-scale violence to continue its steady decline, although the risk of instability and violence is likely to persist, and even increase in some instances.

Keywords: conflict, violence

Suggested Citation

Cilliers, Jacobus (Jakkie) and Schünemann, Julia, The Future of Intrastate Conflict in Africa More Violence or Greater Peace? (May 15, 2013). ISS Paper No. 246, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2690238 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2690238

Jacobus (Jakkie) Cilliers (Contact Author)

Institute for Security Studies ( email )

PO Box 95507, Waterkloof
Pretoria, Gauteng 0145
South Africa
+27-12-3469500 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.issafrica.org

Julia Schünemann

Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)

Block C, Brooklyn Court
Veale Street, New Muckleneuk
Pretoria
South Africa

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
104
Abstract Views
714
Rank
466,166
PlumX Metrics