Climate Change and Food Security: Do Spatial Spillovers Matter?

Abstract

This article analyzes the role of spatial spillovers in the relationship between climate change and food security in developing countries over the period of 1971-2010. Using a Samuelson’s spatial price equilibrium model (theoretically) and Spatial Durbin Model (empirically), results show a strategic substitutability between the levels of food availability in the countries suggesting that an increase of food availability in a given country decreases the food availability of neighboring countries. Second climate change (water balance variability, droughts, floods and extreme temperatures) reduces food availability both in the affected countries and its main food trading partners. Third, food demand factors in a country may have the opposite (asymmetric) effect on its major trading partners. Fourth, supply factors have symmetric impact on food availability.

Keywords: Food security, Climate change, Spatial spillovers, Spatial econometrics, Developing countries

JEL Classification: C23, Q17, Q18, Q54