Market Performance and the Timing of Retirement

Abstract

This study is the first to utilize nine interview waves of the Health and Retirement Study and multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to investigate the effect of market returns on individual elective retirement decisions. Individuals who retire at a market peak have an increased risk of shortening the longevity of their retirement income. Unfortunately, market returns were found to have a significant positive effect on the probability of retirement. Researchers, employers, financial educators and financial practitioners should help pre-retirees overcome the stock market’s influence on their decision-making to avoid the negative effect of market sequencing on their retirement wealth.

Keywords: Behavioral finance, Retirement behavior, Market sequencing, Projection bias, Health and Retirement Study