The Effects of a Temporary Migration Shock: Evidence from the Arab Spring Migration Through Italy

Abstract

This study estimates the short-term effects of migration on employment of native workers in Italy using the exogenous, unanticipated and temporary migration resulting from the Arab Spring. While migration does not have overall effects on native employment, I find significant and offsetting short-term effects across industries. In negatively affected sectors, I estimate quarterly displacement effects that range between 0.68 and 0.8 displaced natives for every immigrant hired. The positive employment effects are consistent with a rise in sectoral employment operating through increased demand from immigrants. Both positive and negative effects on employment tend to dissipate over time.

Keywords: migration, temporary

JEL Classification: F22, J61, R23, R58