구조적 재정수지를 이용한 우리나라의 재정정책 평가 (Evaluation of Korea's Fiscal Policy Using Structural Fiscal Balance)

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 금융위기 이후 유로지역 재정위기가 확산되면서 재정건전성의 중요성이 부각되고 있다. 유로지역 재정위기의 원인이 금융위기가 발생하면서 정부의 지불능력에 대한 시장의 신뢰가 악화된 데 있음을 감안할 때, 재정건전성을 제고하기 위한 정책적 노력이 요구되는 상황이다. 재정건전성에 영향을 미치는 직접적인 요인 중 하나는 정부당국의 재량적인 재정정책이므로, 정부의 재정정책에 대한 평가는 재정건전성을 확보하는 데 중요한 시사점을 제공할 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구는 구조적 재정수지를 추정하고, 구조적 재정수지로 파악된 정부의 재량적 재정정책기조가 경기상황에 적절하였는가를 살펴보고 있다. 더불어 구조적 재정수지에 미치는 주요 요인이 무엇인지를 고찰하는 데도 주안점을 두고 있다. (이하 생략).

English Abstract: Based on structural fiscal balances, this study evaluates whether the government’s discretionary fiscal policy has been suitable for changing economic conditions and then examines the key factors affecting the structural fiscal balance.

This study estimates the structural fiscal balance in various ways that all delivered similar results, meaning that the uncertainty arising from the estimation of the structural fiscal balance is not very high. The evaluation of whether the fiscal policy stance was set properly in response to economic fluctuations showed that the authority’s discretionary fiscal policy responded in an expansionary manner at the time of an economic downturn and in a tightening manner during an economic boom. Furthermore, these fiscal responses are found to be mainly attributable to the expenditure aspect. Meanwhile, from the perspective of cyclical neutral balance, the automatic fiscal stabilizer has not played its function sufficiently in response to changes in economic conditions. Lastly, this study conducts a panel analysis and examines the determinants of the structural fiscal balance which shows the fiscal policy stance of the government. The results illustrated that as the government debt and expenditure on social welfare fields get larger, there is a stronger tendency of sustaining an expansionary fiscal policy stance. On the other hand, as the total tax revenue as percentage of GDP and the total tax rate get higher, the structural fiscal balance appeared to improve. According to the results of this empirical analysis, it can be said that Korea’s fiscal policy stance has generally been managed in an overall timely and proper manner.

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