A Model to Estimate the Broadband and Internet Access Demand for Typical Mexican Rural Communities

Abstract

Benefits of developing telecommunications infrastructure are beyond questioning; however, challenges stand at small rural communities, which in Mexico encompass ~15% of the population, living in townships with less than ~800 residents. Previous research indicates that technology concepts like the Internet of Things (IoT) can create economic value in local economies. Thus, this paper presents a model to estimate wireless access demand in such communities. Estimated projections of IoT product adoption are built for a representative scenario, considering publicly available statistical information (accounting for variables like the number of residents, households, cars, commercial establishments, or local economic indicators). A basket of highly probable products, like payment terminals, is constructed and characterized. Then the adoption process for each considered product estimated with an S-curve, to integrate the corresponding broadband/Internet access demand. Telecommunications industry is experiencing exciting times, yet careful analysis is crucial to support well informed strategic planning processes.

Keywords: Mobile Broadband Access, Rural Community, ICT

JEL Classification: L86