Ever Closer or Lost at Sea? Scenarios for the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Abstract

Five key drivers will shape the future of transatlantic relations in the next decade. Generally, the extent of shared liberal culture and European collective action capacity are crucial for cooperation between the EU and US. Additionally, it matters whether policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic agree on a conception of global order, on how to handle future technologies, and on the use of military force. Building on these drivers we develop and discuss four scenarios. The first describes a world of selective cooperation as the EU disintegrates. In the second, the US withdraws from the global stage and Europeans are forced to assume a leadership position. The third depicts negative consequences from populist nationalism, reducing transatlantic cooperation to military action against perceived Islamist threats. In the fourth scenario we focus on future technology that threatens to overwhelm transatlantic regulatory capacity.

Keywords: Scenarios, Transatlantic Relations, European Union, Foreign Policy, International Relations