Shades of Gray Deterrence: Issues of Fighting in the Gray Zone

Abstract

This article addresses the concept of ‘gray wars’ as it relates to contemporary conflicts and the limits of American conventional deterrence and compellence. It more clearly defines the concept of gray wars for the current era and contrasts Cold War versus post-Cold War gray zone conflicts exposing the limits of current approaches. Finally, the article advocates for a new concept – “gray deterrence” – identifying strategies that can be used by the US to confront ‘gray’ actors in a way that adheres to international laws and norms, but seeks to shape and influence the cost-benefit analysis of ‘gray’ actor behavior.

Keywords: terrorism, gray zone conflict, war, political warfare, deterrence, non-state actors