Structural Transformation in South Asia

ASARC Working Paper 2018/01

25 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2018

See all articles by Raghbendra Jha

Raghbendra Jha

Australian National University (ANU) - Australia South Asia Research Centre (ASARC); Crawford School of Public Policy

Sadia Afrin

Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 4, 2018

Abstract

This paper models the evolution and determinants of the shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services to GDP for 4 South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan) for 55 years: 1960-2014. Determinants of these shares were classified into three broad categories “country fundamentals”, “policy” and “decadal dummies. We find that with increase in GDP the share of services rises strongly whereas the share of manufacturing has a more tepid rise with GDP whereas the share of agriculture falls in most cases. Land per capita is positively associated with share of agriculture whereas arable land only weakly so. As capital and power rise the share of agriculture drops wherever it appears whereas FDI negatively influences the share of agriculture in one case. Share of manufacturing drops with rises in arable land, and rises with trade, capital and power. The share of services falls with land per capita and rises with power. Other influences are largely insignificant. The Kuznets model of structural transformation is supported to some extent.

Keywords: South Asia, Structural Transformation, Xtreg panel estimation

JEL Classification: C22, C23, O11

Suggested Citation

Jha, Raghbendra and Afrin, Sadia, Structural Transformation in South Asia (March 4, 2018). ASARC Working Paper 2018/01, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3134242 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3134242

Raghbendra Jha (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - Australia South Asia Research Centre (ASARC) ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
+61 2 6125 2683 (Phone)
+61 2 6125 0443 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://crawford.anu.edu.au/crawford_people/content/staff/acde/rjha.php

Crawford School of Public Policy

ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

Sadia Afrin

Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

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