Improvement in the Forecasting Ability of Analysts
27 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2002
Abstract
Forecast dispersion, error, and optimism are computed using 36,448 annual observations and 120,022 quarterly observations from 1990 to 2001. Forecast dispersion, error, and optimism all decrease steadily over the sample period, with loss firms showing an especially striking decrease. By the end of the sample period, dispersion and error differences between profit and loss firms are relatively minor, optimism for loss firms is around an unbiased 50%, and pessimism dominates profit firms. The improvement does not appear fully attributable to earnings management, earnings guidance, or Street versus GAAP earnings differences. Furthermore, it appears that loss firm earnings are considerably more difficult to forecast. Given this greater difficulty, analysts actually provide more value when forecasting loss firm earnings.
Keywords: analysts, forecasts, earnings, dispersion, error, optimism
JEL Classification: G14, M40
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Detecting Earnings Management: A New Approach
By Patricia Dechow, Amy P. Hutton, ...
-
A Review of the Earnings Management Literature and its Implications for Standard Setting
-
Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research
By Daniel W. Collins and Paul Hribar
-
The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting
By John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, ...
-
The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting
By John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, ...
-
On the Association between Voluntary Disclosure and Earnings Management
By Ron Kasznik
-
Performance Matched Discretionary Accrual Measures
By S.p. Kothari, Andrew J. Leone, ...
-
The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors
By Ilia D. Dichev and Patricia Dechow