Midterm Elections’ Stock Market Surge – An Unintentional Gift From US Politicians

Abstract

The paper provides evidence for the existence of a midterm election effect. By examining the quarterly total returns on the S&P 500 Index between 1954 and 2017, we show that, nine times out of 10, the index has been positive in the fourth quarter of a midterm election year and the following two quarters. This compounds to nearly 25% in those three quarters. Neither changes in the monetary nor the fiscal policies were able to explain the effect. The authors show that the known third year of a presidential term effect is weaker than the examined midterm election effect.

Keywords: Market Efficiency, US Midterm Election Effect, Political Uncertainty, Presidential Cycle, Political Business Cycle

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14,