The Role of Wild Cards Analysis in Foresight Studies: The Case of Russia

Abstract

The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well as origin, while others study possible applications of wild cards analysis in corporate and government sectors. The purpose of this research is to systematize knowledge about wild cards, determine their role in foresight practices and suggest an instrument for their detection and implementation into foresight research. For this reason, on the basis of a number of national and international foresight projects, we developed existing methodological approaches of wild cards identification, analysis and visual presentation. The results of the study were applied to Russian S&T Foresight 2030.

Keywords: foresight, national foresight projects, wild cards, weak signals, STI policy

JEL Classification: O32