权力转移、模式之争与基于规则的国际秩序 -- 国际关系与国际法视角下的中美关系 (Power Transition, Battle of Models, and Rule-based International Order: Sino-U.S. Relations from the Perspectives of International Relations and International Law)
China Law Review, 2018:5, pp 3-17
17 Pages Posted: 29 Mar 2019
Date Written: December 3, 2018
Abstract
Chinese Abstract: 本文试图从国际关系与国际法的角度来解读当下的中美关系。文章认为,中美当前的战略互疑、紧张和冲突,是基于两个方面的认知:一是因为中国自身实力迅速接近美国而引发“权力转移”的焦虑,二是中美双方经济模式的差异所引发的“交易公平”的抱怨。这两个问题在中美关系中其实一直存在,但在最近才被公认为是两国之间根本性和战略性的矛盾所在。这两个问题对当代国际法的运作造成了莫大挑战,表现在:第一,权力转移,甚至仅仅是因为对权力转移的焦虑所引发的连锁反应,可能对以国际法为依托的当代国际秩序造成巨大的冲击甚至是毁灭性打击。第二,如果国际(经济)法或者国际经济的主要参加方不再相信国际(经济)法能够为他们之间的贸易纠纷提供充足、可操作的行为规范和有效纠纷解决机制,经济模式之争就可能陷入无规则的丛林式经济之战,国际(经济)法所维持的国际经济体系也会崩塌。面对这两种权力之争所可能引发的严重后果,中国与美国亟须回到以规则为导向的国际秩序,并通过互相尊重的谈判来共同制定新的规则以完善国际秩序,使其能继续为国际社会提供规则和秩序方面的公共产品。
English Abstract: This article attempts to approach the contemporary China-U.S. relations, which is undergoing dramatic changes in the recent years, from the perspectives of international relations and international law. It argues that the strategic mistrust, tensions and conflicts between the two leading powers in the world now stems from two sources:
(1) the anxieties about “power transition” which further leads to concerns about security dilemma and even the so-called Thucydides Trap in U.S.-China bilateral security relations, and
(2) the emerging complaints about unfairness in international economic relations resulted from China’s state-driven economic model.
The paper asserts that, although a new Cold War is unlikely to occur immediately between the United States and China due to several constraining factors, concerns about the two issues are posting tremendous challenges to the arguably rule-based international order of our age:
(1) reactions in response to the perceived power transition could lead to devastating damages to the international political order as the increasingly intensified power play will inspire the powers to even play harder at the expense of the rules of international law, and
(2) the beliefs that the existing international economic system, sustained by international economic law, could not supply proper rules to deal with the battle of models as evidenced by the on-going trade war between China and the United States, are already significantly undermining and marginalising the WTO-centered world trading system.
The paper discusses several future scenarios in U.S.-China relations. Although the future is quite uncertain, China’s sincere efforts to demonstrate good in safeguarding the liberal international order may help bring the world back to a rule-based international order.
Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.
Keywords: trade war; U.S.-China trade relations; international law; international order; power transition; China and international order
JEL Classification: K33; P33
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation