Estimation and Goodness-of-Fit for Regime-Switching Copula Models with Application to Option Pricing

Abstract

We consider several time series and for each of them, we fit an appropriate dynamic parametric model. This produces serially independent error terms for each time series. The dependence between these error terms is then modeled by a regime-switching copula. The EM algorithm is used for estimating the parameters and a sequential goodness-of-fit procedure based on Cramér-von Mises statistics is proposed to select the appropriate number of regimes. Numerical experiments are performed to assess the validity of the proposed methodology. As an example of application, we evaluate a European put-on-max option on the returns of two assets. In order to facilitate the use of our methodology, we have built a R package HMMcopula available on CRAN.

Keywords: Goodness-of-fit, Time Series, Copulas, Regime-Switching Models, Generalized Error Models

JEL Classification: C13, C14, C15, C22