Brothers or Invaders? How Crisis-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior
49 Pages Posted: 17 Jun 2019 Last revised: 8 Jun 2020
Date Written: June 7, 2019
Abstract
We study the electoral effects of the arrival of 1.3 million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia as
a consequence of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis. We exploit the fact that forced migrants
disproportionately locate in places with earlier settlements of Venezuelans after the intensification
of the crisis. We find that larger migration shocks increase voter’s turnout and shift
votes from left- to right-wing political ideologies. These effects are predominantly driven by
voter’s concerns on the economic effects of migrants as well as by a novel channel that we call
electoral manipulation, whereby political parties make the forced migration shock salient to
voters in order to demonize the political agenda of contenders.
Keywords: immigration, electoral outcomes, political economy
JEL Classification: D72, F2, O15, R23
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation