“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家经济影响研究——基于CGE模型分析 (Quantify the “Belt and Road” Initiative: Simulation on the Effect of Free Trade Policy)

Abstract

Chinese Abstract: 本文应用全球可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）模拟“一带一路”沿线国家自由贸易政策所带来的经济影响。模拟结果发现，贸易自由化政策将对大部分沿线国家地区都将起到积极的推动作用，为当地经济带来一定活力。另一方面，由于出现贸易转移，美国以及欧洲非“一带一路”国家GDP则会因此而有所下降。行业数据表明，国内大部分行业产出增加，其中农产品出口大幅增长，也促进了国内产出增加。“一带一路”将对消化国内过剩产能起到积极作用，有利于实现经济结构优化升级。

English Abstract: This article uses the global computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to simulate the economic impacts of free trade policies on the countries along the “Belt and Road.” The result shows positive impacts of free trade policies on most countries along the “Belt and Road.” On the other hand, the US and some European countries will have a negative growth in their GDP due to the effect of trade transfer. Meanwhile, the results of the sectoral changes show that China’s agricultural sector will benefit most from the free trade scenario, which is demonstrated in a significant increase in its export and domestic output. This study suggests that the “Belt and Road” initiative will play a positive role in solving the problem of overcapacity in China’s domestic market, leading to an upgrade of the country’s economic structure.

Note: Downloadable document is in Chinese.

Keywords: “一带一路”, 自由贸易, CGE