Systematic Monitoring of Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence
Mandel, D. R. (accepted conditionally). Systematic monitoring of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence. In D. R. Mandel (Ed.), Assessment and Communication of Uncertainty in Intelligence to Support Decision Making: Final Report of Research Task Group SAS-114. Brussels, Belgium: NATO Science an
16 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2019
Date Written: March 1, 2019
Abstract
Accurate indications about consequential future events that arrive early enough can help decision-makers avert trouble. Unsurprisingly, then, forecasting (or prediction, which I use synonymously) plays a vital role in intelligence assessment. According to Allied intelligence doctrine, “analysis does more than look at the current situation, it should be predictive and therefore should address what might happen next, based upon alternative assumptions regarding the actions and reactions of different actors (including the impact of any intervention)” (Ref. [1], §3.38). An effective forecasting capability supports planning and decision-making at all levels, ranging from tactical to strategic. And, although the empirical research reported in this chapter focuses on efforts to monitor forecasting accuracy at the strategic level of intelligence production, the issues dealt with apply as well to forecasting at the tactical and operational levels. Moreover, the methods described for monitoring forecast accuracy and forecasters’ skill could be applied at those levels as well.
Keywords: intelligence analysis, forecasting, prediction, quality control
JEL Classification: C53, C44
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation