Insider Trading and the Return Predictability of Retail Trading

Abstract

Since insider transactions are implemented through personal accounts, the NYSE classifies these trades as retail transactions. Indeed, imbalances of retail trading and insider trading move in lockstep and predict stock returns in the cross-section. A high-minus-low strategy in retail trading imbalances yields an average weekly alpha of 0.15%, of which at least half can be attributed to insider trading. Further, retail trading contains no incremental information about future stock returns for stocks with insider trading and the return predictability of insider trading is stronger among small firms and amid market turbulence.

Keywords: Insider trading, retail trading

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14