The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City

Abstract

New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.

This paper is the second in a series. See "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City.": https://ssrn.com/abstract=3563985. The most recent version of this paper is here.

Keywords: coronavirus, COVID-19, New York City, transmission, subways, transportation

JEL Classification: I1, I12, I18, I28