COVID-19. Scenarios of a Superfluous Crisis

Forthcoming in Kybernetes, DOI: 10.1108/K-05-2020-0280

13 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last revised: 14 Jul 2020

See all articles by Steffen Roth

Steffen Roth

Excelia Business School; Kazimieras Simonavičius University

Lars Clausen

University of Flensburg

Sören Möller

University of Southern Denmark

Date Written: March 30, 2020

Abstract

Case fatality rates (CFR) have been critical in the emergence and management of the current COVID-19 crisis. This article presents a comparative map of CFR for the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza (H1N1 and H2N2). The mapped data shows that current CFR of SARS-CoV-2 are considerably lower than, or similar to those, of hospitalized patients in the UK, Spain, Germany, or international samples. We therefore infer a possible risk that the virulence of the coronavirus is considerably overestimated due to sampling biases, and that increased testing might reduce the general CFR of SARS-CoV-2 to rates similar to, or lower than, those of the common seasonal influenza. We conclude that governments, health corporations, and health researchers must prepare for scenarios in which the affected populations cease to believe in the statistical foundations of the current COVID-19 crisis and interventions.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, influenza, case fatality rates, scenarios

JEL Classification: I10, M00

Suggested Citation

Roth, Steffen and Clausen, Lars and Möller, Sören, COVID-19. Scenarios of a Superfluous Crisis (March 30, 2020). Forthcoming in Kybernetes, DOI: 10.1108/K-05-2020-0280, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3564920 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3564920

Steffen Roth (Contact Author)

Excelia Business School ( email )

102 rue de Coureilles
Les Minimes
La Rochelle, 17024
France

Kazimieras Simonavičius University ( email )

Dariaus ir Girėno g. 21
Vilnius, 02189
Lithuania

Lars Clausen

University of Flensburg ( email )

Auf dem Campus 1
Flensburg, 24943
Germany

Sören Möller

University of Southern Denmark ( email )

Campusvej 55
DK-5230 Odense, 5000
Denmark

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