외화예금의 역할과 정책적 시사점 (The Role of Foreign Currency Deposits and Its Policy Implications)

Abstract

This report looks at the current state of foreign currency deposits (FCDs) in Korea and identifies determinants of the foreign currency deposits and the relationship between foreign currency deposit and exchange rate stability. Based on empirical analysis and surveys of experts, this paper proposes a scheme to activate foreign currency deposits. Korea's foreign currency deposits have increased significantly since the global financial crisis, thanks to the continuation of the current account surplus. At the end of 2010, FCDs were $24 billion, and as of the end of 2017, FCDs increased to $87 billion. Accordingly, the role of FCDs as a source of foreign currency funds for domestic banks has increased significantly. In 2010–18, when looking at changes in the composition of foreign currency liabilities of domestic banks, the share of foreign borrowing decreased from 40.7% to 24.8%, while the reliance on FCDs rose from 20.1% to 35.3%. However, as corporations’ share of FCDs account for about 80%, Korea's FCDs are highly volatile depending on the size of imports and exports, exchange rate fluctuations, etc. In fact, during March–April 2019, the size of FCDs decreased sharply due to an increase in the exchange rate. In order to identify the determining factors of Korea’s FCDs, a structural VAR (vector autoregressive) model was used. When analyzed for the entire period, FCDs were found to respond significantly to the exchange rate shock, but were not significantly affected by the current account shocks. However, the impact of the two variables on FCDs varied significantly before and after the global financial crisis. Before the global financial crisis, while the effect of currency shocks on FCDs was not statistically significant, the impact of the current account balance on FCDs was significant. However, since the global financial crisis, the effect of commercial accounts on FCDs has been greatly weakened, while exchange rates have played an important role as a variable affecting FCDs. In addition, the report found that increased FCDs have a positive effect on exchange rate stability, thus increasing the legitimacy of policy efforts to expand FCDs. Using panel data from 21 countries, the impact of foreign exchange reserves and foreign currency deposits on exchange rate stability was demonstrated. It was confirmed that an increase in foreign currency deposits in countries or periods where foreign exchange reserves are relatively low reduces exchange rate volatility. Based on empirical findings and interviews with commercial bank officials and experts, the report provides several suggestions on how to raise FCDs. In order for FCDs to function as a stable source of foreign currency liquidity, banks must be given incentives in their management and procurement of FCDs. First of all, the current system where sell and buy transactions in the swap market lead to a reduction in foreign currency liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) should be improved. We suggest measures such as regarding foreign currencies that will be returned to the bank within a few days after a sell and buy transaction as cash inflows when conducting 3-month stress test calculations. In regard to the foreign currency LCR and three-month stress test, it will be necessary to check whether regulatory effects are overlapping with existing measures such as the foreign exchange stability levy or regulations on foreign exchange derivatives position, etc. In terms of foreign currency funding, we propose an improvement of the return on foreign currency deposits and the strengthening of global money management services. Should the current account surplus flow be disrupted, it will be difficult for the authorities to pursue the expansion of foreign currency deposits. However, based on the understanding of the incentive structure of the FCDs stakeholders analyzed in this report, it is necessary to promote the expansion of FCDs in a way that increases the attractiveness of FCDs as a financial product.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: 외화예금, 금융안전망