Comparative Analysis of the First and Second Wave of the COVID-19: Is the On-Going Impact of Second Wave on Public Health Stronger than First One?

Abstract

One of the fundamental problems in the crisis management of COVID-19 pandemic is to know the impact on public health of the second wave of the COVID-19 compared to first wave for designing effective policy responses to cope with this on-going socioeconomic and health crisis in society. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths, and that implemented containment measures of lockdown and quarantine in the first and second COVID-19 pandemic wave. In particular, comparative analysis of the study here investigates the impact on public health of the first and second wave of COVID-19 in Italy. Statistical analyses consider daily data from February to November 2020 of the ratio of confirmed cases/total swabs, fatality rate (deaths / confirmed cases) and ratio of individuals in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) / Confirmed cases. The first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a strong but declining impact on public health with the approaching of summer season and with the effects of containment measures. Results suggest, to date, that second wave of the COVID-19 has a growing trend of confirmed cases, whereas ICUs and deaths seem to have a stationary trend with lower impact on public health compared to first wave. Lessons learned from this comparative analysis between first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic can provide vital information to design effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain current and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in society.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; Epidemic waves; Pandemic waves; Crisis management; Comparative analysis; Policy responses; Public health; Policy-making; ICU; Fatality rates; Confirmed cases

JEL Classification: D71, H12, H50, H75, I18, O35