Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

33 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2021 Last revised: 28 Aug 2022

See all articles by Tuan Anh Luong

Tuan Anh Luong

De Montfort University - Faculty of Business and Law

Manh-Hung Nguyen

TSE, LERNA-INRA

N.T. Khuong Truong

Curtin University

Kien Le

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: June 22, 2022

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can influence individual migration decisions in Vietnam, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Individual migration probability drops by 7.5 percentage points when the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average doubles. This relationship could potentially be driven by individuals working in the agricultural sector who are less likely to move due to higher agricultural income from more rainfall. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate the gender inequality in Vietnam since women cannot cope with climatic shocks through migration. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced internal migration would be more efficient if they focused on flood control and water management, especially for women and people in the areas whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.

Keywords: Climate change, Rainfall, Migration, Gender inequality, Vietnam.

JEL Classification: Q26, Q54, O15

Suggested Citation

Luong, Tuan Anh and Nguyen, Manh-Hung and Truong, N.T. Khuong and Le, Kien, Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality (June 22, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3809996 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3809996

Tuan Anh Luong (Contact Author)

De Montfort University - Faculty of Business and Law ( email )

United Kingdom

Manh-Hung Nguyen

TSE, LERNA-INRA ( email )

Place Anatole-France
Toulouse Cedex, F-31042
France

N.T. Khuong Truong

Curtin University ( email )

Perth, WA
Australia

Kien Le

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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