Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality
33 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2021 Last revised: 28 Aug 2022
Date Written: June 22, 2022
Abstract
This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can influence individual migration decisions in Vietnam, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Individual migration probability drops by 7.5 percentage points when the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average doubles. This relationship could potentially be driven by individuals working in the agricultural sector who are less likely to move due to higher agricultural income from more rainfall. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate the gender inequality in Vietnam since women cannot cope with climatic shocks through migration. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced internal migration would be more efficient if they focused on flood control and water management, especially for women and people in the areas whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.
Keywords: Climate change, Rainfall, Migration, Gender inequality, Vietnam.
JEL Classification: Q26, Q54, O15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation