Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next?

48 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2021

See all articles by Jongrim Ha

Jongrim Ha

World Bank

M. Ayhan Kose

World Bank; Brookings Institution; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University (ANU)

Franziska Ohnsorge

World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

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Date Written: July 7, 2021

Abstract

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most muted and shortest-lived of any of the five global recessions over the past 50 years and the increase in inflation since May 2020 has been the fastest. Second, the decline in global inflation from January-May 2020 was four-fifths driven by the collapse in global demand and another one-fifth driven by plunging oil prices, with some offsetting inflationary pressures from supply disruptions. The subsequent surge in inflation has been mostly driven by a sharp increase in global demand. Third, both model-based forecasts and current inflation expectations point to an increase in inflation for 2021 of just over 1 percentage point. For virtually all advanced economies and one-half of inflation-targeting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), an increase of this magnitude would leave inflation within target ranges. If the increase is temporary and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, it may not warrant a monetary policy response. If, however, inflation expectations risk becoming unanchored, EMDE central banks may be compelled to tighten monetary policy before the recovery is fully entrenched.

Keywords: Global Inflation, COVID-19, Global Recession, FAVAR, Oil Prices, Global Shocks

JEL Classification: E31, E32, Q43

Suggested Citation

Ha, Jongrim and Kose, M. Ayhan and Ohnsorge, Franziska, Inflation During the Pandemic: What Happened? What is Next? (July 7, 2021). CAMA Working Paper No. 58/2021, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3881525 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3881525

Jongrim Ha

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

M. Ayhan Kose (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University (ANU) ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601
Australia

Franziska Ohnsorge

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
J.G. Crawford Building, #132, Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia

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