Biased Processing and Opinion Polarisation: Experimental Refinement of Argument Communication Theory in the Context of the Energy Debate
16 Pages Posted: 30 Aug 2021
Date Written: July 28, 2021
Abstract
We combine empirical experimental research on biased argument processing with a computational theory of group deliberation in order to clarify the role of biased processing in debates around energy. The experiment reveals a strong tendency to consider arguments aligned with the current attitude more persuasive and to downgrade those speaking against it. This is integrated into the framework of argument communication theory in which agents exchange arguments about a certain topic and adapt opinions accordingly. We derive a mathematical model that allows to relate the strength of biased processing to expected attitude changes given the specific experimental conditions and find a clear signature of moderate biased processing. We further show that this model fits significantly better to the experimentally observed attitude changes than the neutral argument processing assumption made in previous models. Our approach provides new insight into the relationship between biased processing and opinion polarisation. At the individual level our analysis reveals a sharp qualitative transition from attitude moderation to polarisation. At the collective level we find (i.) that weak biased processing significantly accelerates group decision processes whereas (ii.) strong biased processing leads to a persistent conflictual state of subgroup polarisation. While this shows that biased processing alone is sufficient for polarisation, we also demonstrate that homophily may lead to intra-group conflict at significantly lower rates of biased processing.
Keywords: biased processing, attitude change, polarisation, experimental calibration, argument persuasion, group deliberation, opinion dynamics, energy debate
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