COVID-19 Does Not Stop at Open Borders: Spatial Contagion Among Local Authority Districts During England’s First Wave

Social Science & Medicine, Volume 270, February 2021, 113655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113655

6 Pages Posted: 24 Aug 2021

See all articles by Denise Laroze

Denise Laroze

University of Santiago, Chile - Centre for Experimental Social Sciences (CESS)

Eric Neumayer

London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

Thomas Pluemper

University of Essex - Department of Government; Vienna University of Economics and Business - Department of Socioeconomics

Date Written: February 1, 2021

Abstract

Infectious diseases generate spatial dependence or contagion not only between individuals but also between geographical units. New infections in one local district do not just depend on properties of the district, but also on the strength of social ties of its population with populations in other districts and their own degree of infectiousness. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic spread across district borders in England as a function of pre-crisis commute to work streams between districts. Crucially, the strength of this spatial contagion depends on the phase of the epidemic. In the first pre-lockdown phase, the spread of the virus across district borders is high. During the lockdown period, the cross-border spread of new infections slows down significantly. Spatial contagion increases again after the lockdown is eased but not statistically significantly so.

Note: Funding: None to declare.

Declaration of Interests: None to declare

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infectious Diseases, Pandemic, Spatial Contagion, Spatial Dependence, Lockdown, English Local Authority District

Suggested Citation

Laroze, Denise and Neumayer, Eric and Plümper, Thomas and Plümper, Thomas, COVID-19 Does Not Stop at Open Borders: Spatial Contagion Among Local Authority Districts During England’s First Wave (February 1, 2021). Social Science & Medicine, Volume 270, February 2021, 113655, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113655, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3907889

Denise Laroze

University of Santiago, Chile - Centre for Experimental Social Sciences (CESS) ( email )

Concha y Toro 32C
Santiago
Chile

Eric Neumayer (Contact Author)

London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://https://ericneumayer.wordpress.com/

Thomas Plümper

Vienna University of Economics and Business - Department of Socioeconomics ( email )

Vienna
Austria

University of Essex - Department of Government ( email )

Wivenhoe Park
Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.polsci.org/pluemper

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