The Long-Term Effect of Air Pollution on Human Cognition: Evidence from China
64 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2021 Last revised: 10 Apr 2023
Date Written: April 9, 2023
Abstract
This paper investigates the long-term causal effect of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on cognitive ability in middle-aged and older Chinese individuals. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that a 10-μg/m3 increase in long-term PM2.5 exposure leads to a 0.7 standard deviation (SD) reduction in overall cognitive ability scores. The negative effects of PM2.5 on cognitive ability increase with lengthier exposure periods, indicating a cumulative impact over time. Females, older individuals, and those with lower education levels experience more significant impacts. We estimate that one-SD increase in PM2.5 is linked to an annual economic cost of $24.2 billion in terms of additional medical expenditures on mental illness caused by severe depression, and reducing PM2.5 levels to the World Health Organization standard could save approximately $34.7 billion annually.
Keywords: Long-term exposure, Fine particulate matter, Cognitive ability, Regression discontinuity design, Huai River Policy
JEL Classification: I15, I18, Q48, Q53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation