Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Confidence and Uncertainty: Evidence from a Large Emerging Market Economy

Abstract

After the Global Financial Crisis, the role of uncertainty in driving optimal responses of consumers, firms and policymakers has garnered a renewed focus. In the face of uncertainty, economic agents awaiting information and clarity on future outcomes, may delay their economic decisions. Monetary policy aimed at business cycle stabilization may be rendered ineffective in such situations. We test this hypothesis for a large emerging market economy by analyzing the confidence channel of monetary transmission in India. Using a flexible, local projections-based framework, we find that uncertainty shocks resemble a negative supply shock, contrary to evidence from the developed world. This dominant supply-side effect of uncertainty is crucial in understanding the ineffectiveness of monetary policy transmission once macroeconomic uncertainty is accounted for. An unanticipated increase in uncertainty hinders private investment thereby eroding the productive capacity of the economy. This worsens the inflation-output tradeoff for monetary policy. The weaker monetary policy transmission is corroborated by a non-linear threshold model. Episodes of increased uncertainty may, therefore, require unconventional policy tools for effective management. Our findings are useful for monetary policy in an emerging economy given its objective to maintain price stability and optimize on economic growth.

Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, real economy, confidence, uncertainty, local projections, non-linear modelling

JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52, C32