The Association between the proportion of Brexiters and COVID-19 Death Rates in England

26 Pages Posted: 5 Nov 2021 Last revised: 7 Mar 2023

See all articles by Ludovic Phalippou

Ludovic Phalippou

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Betty H.T. Wu

University of Glasgow Adam Smith Business School

Date Written: March 1, 2023

Abstract

A cultural divide may exist between a set of people who accept and a set of people who reject the advice of experts. This cultural divide may have important consequences and policy implications, especially in times of severe crisis. We execute an ecological study of whether there exists a significant conditional correlation between two variables that appear unrelated except for attitude towards experts: i) Proportion of people voting in favor of remaining in the European Union in 2016 and ii) COVID-19 outcomes four years later: death rates, vaccination rates. Districts where people voted most heavily in favor of remaining in the EU (top quintile) had nearly half the death rate of districts in the bottom quintile. This relationship was stronger after the first wave, which was a time when protective measures were communicated to the public by experts. A similar relationship was observed with the decision to get vaccinated, and results were strongest for the booster dose, which was the dose that was not mandatory but highly advised by experts. The Brexit vote is the variable most correlated with COVID-19 outcomes among many variables including common proxies for trust and civic capital or differences in industry composition across Districts. Our results suggest a need for designing incentive schemes that take into consideration different belief systems. Scientific prowess – such as finding effective vaccines – may not be sufficient to solve crises.

Note:
Funding: This research has not received any external financing.

Declaration of Interests: Authors have no potential conflicts of interests to declare.

Keywords: Brexit vote, COVID-19, Polarization, Political Trust

JEL Classification: E71, H12, I12, I8, Z18

Suggested Citation

Phalippou, Ludovic and Wu, Betty H.T., The Association between the proportion of Brexiters and COVID-19 Death Rates in England (March 1, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3955345 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3955345

Ludovic Phalippou (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

Betty H.T. Wu

University of Glasgow Adam Smith Business School ( email )

Glasgow, Scotland
United Kingdom

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