COVID-19 and Bank Resilience: Where Do We Stand?

Abstract

A forward-looking view on bank resilience can be obtained through a combination of regulatory capital ratios, market valuations and insights from stress tests.

Banks appear to have avoided the losses that once seemed likely given the severity of the pandemic shock, due in large part to policy support. While market valuations have largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels, a weaker tail of banks continues to struggle with anaemic profitability and potential for credit losses. The resilience of these banks could be tested if credit losses materialise following the winding down of policy support.

Keywords: Bank Resilience, Basel III, Capital Ratios, Merton Model

JEL Classification: G21, G28