Climate Change, Agriculture, and Potential Crop Yields in Central Asia

IFPRI Discussion Paper 2081

39 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2022

See all articles by Timothy S. Thomas

Timothy S. Thomas

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Akramov Kamiljon

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Ricky Robertson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Vijay Nazareth

Center for Social Innovation

Jarilkasin Ilyasov

Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Date Written: December 31, 2021

Abstract

Agriculture in Central Asia is vulnerable to climate change due to rising aridity, declining availability of water resources for irrigation, and low adaptive capacity. We use climate data from CMIP5 with RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions and the DSSAT crop model to investigate how yields of key crops in Central Asia will be affected by climate change. We distinguish changes in yields between spring and winter plantings, between irrigated and rainfed crops, and between crops grown with high and low amounts of fertilizer. The results suggest that countries (and areas within countries) that either have moderate summers or grow a number of crops in a relatively cold winter will benefit from climate change, while countries that grow many of the crops in the summer will experience losses.

Keywords: UZBEKISTAN, CENTRAL ASIA, ASIA, climate change, agriculture, crops, modelling, yields, greenhouse gas emissions, land reform, crop modeling, DSSAT

Suggested Citation

Thomas, Timothy S. and Kamiljon, Akramov and Robertson, Ricky and Nazareth, Vijay and Ilyasov, Jarilkasin, Climate Change, Agriculture, and Potential Crop Yields in Central Asia (December 31, 2021). IFPRI Discussion Paper 2081, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4000738

Timothy S. Thomas

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

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Akramov Kamiljon (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Ricky Robertson

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Vijay Nazareth

Center for Social Innovation ( email )

Fredrick, MD

Jarilkasin Ilyasov

Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade of the Republic of Uzbekistan ( email )

Tashkent
Uzbekistan

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