Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the U.S.

Abstract

Do local labor markets adjust to economic shocks through migration? In this paper,
we study this question by focusing on two of the most important shocks that hit US
manufacturing since the 1990s: Chinese import competition and the introduction of
industrial robots. We find that, even though both shocks drastically reduced manufacturing
employment, only robots led to a sizable decline in population. We provide
evidence that negative employment spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots
but not by Chinese imports, can explain the different migration responses.

Keywords: migration, employment, technology, trade

JEL Classification: J21, J23, J61