Influence and Power in the Western Indo-Pacific: Lessons from Eastern Africa
In Cannon, Brendon J., and Kei Hakata (Eds). Indo-Pacific Strategies: Navigating Geopolitics at the Dawn of a New Age, pp. 216-232. Routledge, 2021.
28 Pages Posted: 4 Apr 2023
Date Written: 2021
Abstract
The geopolitical situation of Eastern Africa is complex and volatile due to several socio-economic, security and political factors. These range from poverty to terrorism to maritime insecurity. This vast region—home to highly diverse states and peoples—is also rich in natural resources such as oil and gas. Ports are few and far between, making them critically important for the economic and political security of all Eastern African states, not just landlocked states. In addition, one of the world’s major maritime chokepoints, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, lies just offshore three Horn of Africa states. A significant portion of the world’s trade passes through the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, Europe and North America, making the Horn of Africa one of the world’s most critical regions in terms of security. Lastly, the political economy of recent engagements by external state actors means the security of the region is being shaped by what is an increasingly charged geopolitical situation.
This chapter challenges this perception and offers a nuanced perspective that emphasize both the resilient power of the Indo-Pacific lynchpins and the autonomy of action held by regional states. It starts with an analysis of influence and power. This is followed by a discussion on the disconnect between perceptions of Chinese influence in Eastern Africa and on-the-ground realities. The third section explores the role of Japan in the region, contextualizing them in Tokyo’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision, while the penultimate section highlights the author’s survey work in Kenya to show how perceptions of China are rapidly changing across the region. The author’s prescriptive analysis concludes the chapter, offering that while vigilance is required along with refashioned tools of engagement in Eastern Africa, the Quad’s concerns over influence and power being lost to China in the region lack nuance and are therefore misguided.
Keywords: Indo-Pacific; geopolitics; Sub-Saharan Africa; balance of power; East Africa; Horn of Africa; great power rivalry
JEL Classification: F50, F51, F52, F54
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation