Estimating and Analysing Currency Options Implied Risk-Neutral Density Functions for the Largest New EU Member States

51 Pages Posted: 5 May 2005

Date Written: February 2005

Abstract

This paper uses data on currency options prices for the exchange rates of the three largest new EU member states Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary vis-a-vis the euro and the US dollar to estimate the risk-neutral density (RND) functions and the density interval bands. Analysing the RNDs, we find that only some of the implied moments on the Polish zloty exchange rate systematically move around policy events, while the implied moments on the RNDs on the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint show more systematic changes. Regarding the HUF/EUR currency pair, monetary policy news have a significant impact on all moments, while changes in implied standard deviation signal a higher probability of interest rate changes by the Hungarian central bank. The more marked results for HUF/EUR exchange rate could reflect the fixed exchange rate regime prevailing throughout the sample period.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate market sentiment, monetary policy news, currency options data

JEL Classification: E52, F31, G15

Suggested Citation

Castren, Olli, Estimating and Analysing Currency Options Implied Risk-Neutral Density Functions for the Largest New EU Member States (February 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=648001 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.648001

Olli Castren (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany
0049 69 13440 (Phone)
0044 69 1344 6000 (Fax)

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