Feers and Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals for the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Canadian Dollar
28 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Date Written: July 1996
Abstract
Models of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates (FEERs) impose internal and external balance, and so appeal to fundamental notions of equilibrium from a macroeconomic perspective. However, the need to estimate internal and external imbalances creates uncertainty in the approach. Parameters must be estimated, and equilibrium balances must be gauged using judgement. Hence it makes sense to consider the FEER as a statistical estimate rather than a fixed number, and to calculate confidence intervals for the FEER. This paper calculates such confidence intervals with data for Canada, under a variety of assumptions. The estimated confidence intervals are quite wide, principally because of uncertainty about price elasticities in the underlying trade equations.
JEL Classification: 211, 431
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation
-
By Matthew B. Canzoneri, Robert E. Cumby, ...
-
International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradable Inflation
-
Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of Beers and Feers
By Peter B. Clark and Ronald Macdonald
-
Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- Ment
-
The EMS, the Emu, and the Transition to a Common Currency
By Kenneth Froot and Kenneth Rogoff
-
Real Exchange Rates and Productivity Growth in the United States and Japan
-
Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments
By Jacob A. Frenkel and Michael L. Mussa
-
By Enrique Alberola, Humberto Lopez, ...
-
Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence