Merits of Different Dietary Patterns for Ensuring China's Future Food Security Satisfying Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract

Food security depends on the excess food production over consumption, which are influenced, respectively, by climate change and socio-economic development. We adopted a hybrid approach for predicting future features of food security in China. Specifically, complex interactions in food security were effectively addressed by methods of copula-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Crop yields per unit area were simulated by DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model under the climate change scenarios. There would be a high shortage risk of soybeans in China, with lower risks of maize and wheat shortages. In comparison with the extent of food security in China under other dietary patterns, performance of advantage in Chinese dietary pattern was identified, which could mitigate shortage risks of the crops. Considering Chinese dietary preferences, occurrences of wheat, maize, and soybean shortages in China would decrease by 2.09%-3.62%, 3.87%-5.23%, and 0.91%-8.63% from 2025 to 2030, respectively relative to the Southern European Atlantic Diet.

Keywords: Food security; Uncertainty analysis; Climate change scenarios; Copula functions; Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation; Dietary transitions