Schools Under Mandatory Testing Can Mitigate the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

21 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2022 Last revised: 30 Nov 2022

See all articles by Ingo E. Isphording

Ingo E. Isphording

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Marc Diederichs

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

Reyn van Ewijk

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Department of Economics

Nico Pestel

Maastricht University; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Abstract

We use event-study models based on staggered summer vacations in Germany to estimate the effect of school re-openings after the summer of 2021 on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Estimations are based on daily counts of confirmed coronavirus infections across all 401 German counties. Our results are consistent with mandatory testing contributing to containment of cases by uncovering otherwise undetected (asymptomatic) cases. Case numbers in school-aged children spike in the first week after the summer breaks but then turn not significantly different from zero. Case numbers in prime-aged age groups gradually decrease after school re-openings, arguably as a result of detected clusters through the school testing. The age group 60+ remains unaffected by the school re-openings. We conclude that the combination of mandatory testing and compulsory school attendance can provide an unbiased and near-complete surveillance of the pandemic. Thus, under certain conditions open schools can play a role in containing the spread of the virus. The trade-off between reducing contacts and losing an important monitoring device has to be taken seriously when re-considering school closures as a nonpharmaceutical intervention under the current circumstances.

Note:
Funding Information: None.

Conflict of Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Keywords: COVID-19, schooling, education, Germany

JEL Classification: I12, I18, I28

Suggested Citation

Isphording, Ingo E. and Diederichs, Marc and van Ewijk, Reyn and Pestel, Nico, Schools Under Mandatory Testing Can Mitigate the Spread of SARS-CoV-2. IZA Discussion Paper No. 14844, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4114394

Ingo E. Isphording (Contact Author)

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Marc Diederichs

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz ( email )

Saarstr. 21
Jakob Welder-Weg 4
Mainz, 55122
Germany

Reyn Van Ewijk

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Department of Economics ( email )

Saarstrasse 21
Mainz, D-55099
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.econometrics.economics.uni-mainz.de/392.php

Nico Pestel

Maastricht University ( email )

P.O. Box 616
Maastricht, Limburg 6200MD
Netherlands

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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