Election Fraud and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines

Previous studies have documented a positive association between election fraud and the intensity of civil conflict. It is not clear, however, whether this association is causal or due to unobserved institutional or cultural factors. This paper examines the relationship between election fraud and post-election violence in the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections. Using the density test developed by McCrary (2008), we find evidence that incumbents were able to win tightly contested elections through fraud. In addition, we show that narrow incumbent victories were associated with an increase in post-election casualties, which is consistent with the hypothesis that election fraud causes conflict. We conduct several robustness tests and find no evidence that incumbent victories increased violence for reasons unrelated to fraud.

Keywords: election fraud, conflict

JEL Classification: D72, D73, D74

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Crost, Benjamin and Felter, Joseph and Mansour, Hani and Rees, Daniel I., Election Fraud and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7469, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2290467 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2290467