China's Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market Consequences

45 Pages Posted: 7 Mar 2016 Last revised: 16 Apr 2023

See all articles by Fei Wang

Fei Wang

Renmin University of China

Liqiu Zhao

Renmin University of China

Zhong Zhao

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Renmin University of China

Abstract

China initiated its family planning policy in 1962 and one-child policy in 1980 and allows all couples to have two children as of 1st January, 2016. This paper systematically examines the labor market consequences of China's family planning policies. First, we briefly review the major historical evolution of China's family planning policies. Second, we investigate the effects of these policies on the labor market, focusing on the size and quality of the working-age population and its age and gender composition and paying special attention to regional as well as rural-urban differences in the demographic structure resulting from the interaction of the family planning policies and internal migration.Last, we discuss undergoing and prospective policy changes and potential consequences. Though urban areas and coastal provinces have implemented stricter family planning policies, our analysis shows that because of internal migration, the aging problem is more severe in rural areas and in inland provinces. Our simulation results further indicate that the new two-child policy may be too late and too little to alleviate the aging problem in China.

Keywords: quantity–quality model, One-Child Policy, sex ratio, aging, migration

JEL Classification: J13, J11, J21, J61

Suggested Citation

Wang, Fei and Zhao, Liqiu and Zhao, Zhong, China's Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market Consequences. IZA Discussion Paper No. 9746, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2742534 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2742534

Fei Wang (Contact Author)

Renmin University of China

Room B906
Xianjin Building
Beijing, Beijing 100872
China

Liqiu Zhao

Renmin University of China ( email )

Zhong Zhao

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Renmin University of China ( email )

Room B906
Xianjin Building
Beijing, Beijing 100872
China

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