Equity Premium Prediction: The Role of Informationfrom the Options Market

Abstract

This paper examines the role of information from the options market in forecasting the equity premium. We provide empirical evidence that the equity premium is predictable out-of-sample using a set of CBOE strategy benchmark indices as predictors. We use a range of econometric approaches to generate point, quantile and density forecasts, and we find that models based on option variables consistently outperform the historical average benchmark. In addition to statistical gains, using option predictors results in substantial economic benefits for a mean-variance investor, delivering up to a fivefold increase in certainty equivalent returns over the benchmark during the 1996-2021 period.

Keywords: Equity premium, Forecasting, Options, Quantile regression